May 27 1985

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U.S. Air Force's imaging reconnaissance spacecraft had observed the USSR's 200-foot tall oxygen/hydrogen-powered rocket hardware, to be used in both their Space Shuttle and new unmanned heavy booster programs, being frequently mounted and removed from its Tyuratam launch pad, suggesting Soviet dissatisfaction with the ground test results and leading U.S. space experts to believe the troubles could greatly slow the Soviet's ability to launch large new space station elements or space weapons such as laser battle stations, Aviation Week reported.

The Soviets had not test flown any of the new heavy Space Shuttle or new unmanned-booster hardware, and serious delays in their flight test schedules would undoubtedly arise from the ground test problems.

However, U.S. reconnaissance had also discovered the Soviet shuttle program recently had added a significant new element-a second large Space Shuttle orbiter vehicle-observed sitting partially in a hangar at the Soviet Ramenskoye Flight Test Center east of Moscow. The other Soviet heavy orbiter was sitting outside the hangar. The orbiters were almost identical in size and design to the U.S. Space Shuttle orbiter, and the discovery of the second vehicle showed a forward program direction. (Av Wk, May 27/85, 21)

A fare war had broken out in space, Fortune reported, and Arianespace, a consortium of European governments and private companies that operated the European-built Ariane rocket, was grabbing communications satellite launches away from the U.S. Space Shuttle by aggressively underpricing it. Although NASA had launched 30 satellites, nine aboard the Space Shuttle, over the previous four years and the Ariane less than 12, the Europeans would become major competitors, Fortune predicted.

A Space Shuttle launch cost $25 million; Arianespace charged $24 million. And Arianespace had cut that price by as much as $3 million to lure some U.S. customers. Arianespace officials said its throwaway rockets were more efficient at the single task of launching satellites than was the complex Space Shuttle, which NASA had designed to perform a range of scientific and military missions. "Using the shuttle for launching satellites," Charles Bigot, director of Arianespace, said, "is like flying a supersonic Mirage jet fighter when all you need is a puddle jumper." American entrepreneurs who wanted to get into the satellite-launching business complained that prices charged by both Arianespace and NASA were ridiculously low as a result of government subsidies. Transpace Carriers Inc., for example, held the rights to buy the Delta rocket from its manufacturer McDonnell Douglas Corp., but couldn't launch a satellite for less than $45 million.

The U.S. Department of Transportation, which wanted to encourage private companies like Transpace Carriers, was encouraging President Reagan to set Space Shuttle launch rates high enough to make the commercial launches profitable. So the future of the launch business, Fortune said, would rest with President Reagan's decision on Space Shuttle pricing-and on Arianespace's reaction. If Reagan boosted Space Shuttle launch fees, it would please entrepreneurs anxious to get into the space business. But that would also give the Europeans a bigger opening into the space business than they've had so far. (Fortune, May 27/85, 138)

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