Apr 5 2002
From The Space Library
NASA's JPL researchers identified a 1-kilometer-long (0.62-mile-long) asteroid that might possibly crash into Earth in the future~although such an event would be highly unlikely. In the report published in the journal Science, the scientists suggested that asteroid 1950 DA would come close to Earth in 2880, but that the probability of a collision would be low. The study had incorporated radar and optical measurements of the asteroid collected over 51 years and had used analytical techniques unprecedented in asteroid-trajectory predictions and hazard studies. Based on their analysis, JPL scientists had identified a 20-minute window on 16 March 2880, in which “there could be a non-negligible probability of the 1-kilometer [0.62-mile] object colliding with Earth.” However, they clarified that the odds of a collision were at most 1 in 300 and possibly even more remote, considering how little they knew about the asteroid. The research results indicated that, despite the remote possibility of such a collision, 1950 DA poses a relatively greater potential hazard to Earth than any other known asteroid. (J. D. Giorgini, “Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction,” Science 296, no. 5565 (5 April 2002): 132-136; NASA JPL, “Radar Pushes Limits of Asteroid Impact Prediction,” news release, 4 April 2002.)
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